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The following document was first released in 2008 by ISCAP, though it was about 98% redacted. The document itself lists “plausible future events illustrating the types of circumstances in which the application of US military power might be required.”
In 2017, The Black Vault filed a Mandatory Declassification Review (MDR) request to get the document reviewed again. It took until July of 2023, but the document ended up being released in full.
Summary
The document outlines a shift from a single global scenario to an array of regional scenarios, given the uncertainty of the international security environment.
The scenarios presented in the document are illustrative, not predictive or exhaustive. They depict plausible future events illustrating the types of circumstances in which the application of US military power might be required. Each scenario involves plausible threats in regions of vital interest to the US, and corresponding achievable military objectives.
The document also mentions that the scenarios are to be used as an analytical tool for the formulation and assessment of defense programs. While the Base Force is sized to support the elements of the new strategy, these scenarios enable planners and programmers to examine defense programs for appropriate levels of combat power, mobility, readiness, and sustainment.
Document Archive
Defense Planning Guidance, 1994-1999 [33 Pages, 8.5MB]
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