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http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e072719.htm

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article on storm

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fire-threat-wont-let-go-california-philippines-brace-torrential-rains-kai-tak

Fire Threat Won’t Let Go of California; Philippines Brace for Torrential Rain from Kai-Tak

The North Pacific is bookended by two major weather stories this weekend—one involving too much rain, the other too little. A slow-moving tropical storm crawling across the Philippines was adding to rainfall that could end up totaling several feet in some spots (see below). Meanwhile, another round of dangerous fire weather conditions was predicted for parts of Central and Southern California as a destructive, nerve-racking December continued across the parched state.

Critical fire weather possible in parts of Bay Area on Saturday
A strong cold front pushing southward through California will kick up high winds early in the weekend, leading to potentially critical fire weather conditions. In its outlook for Saturday, issued early Friday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted the risk of critical fire weather across a large swath of central California, including most of the Bay Area as well as the North Bay Hills that were hammered by catastrophic fire in October. Relative humidity (RH) is not expected to drop into the less-than-10% range, which is associated with the most severe fire behavior, but north-northeast winds gusting beyond 30 mph may coincide with low RH of 15-25%.

Critical fire weather conditions are also possible from late Saturday into Sunday across parts of coastal Southern California hard-hit by massive late-season fires over the last two weeks.

No rain has fallen in the last two weeks across much of the Southwest U.S. (see Figure 1). With luck, parts of Northern California could see a modest early-winter storm late next week, but otherwise no major rain or snow is expected across the state for at least the next week to 10 days.

Thomas Fire grinds its way to new records
The Thomas Fire—still raging across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, northwest of Los Angeles—grew from 242,500 acres on Thursday to 252,500 acres on Friday. That’s no small expansion: the fire consumed 15.6 square miles in just 24 hours.

The Thomas Fire now ranks as the fourth largest in California’s wildfire history, according to Cal Fire. Just ahead of it is the August 2013 Rim Fire: that one devoured 257,314 acres, so it looks likely that the Thomas Fire will soon displace it as #3 on the list. The state’s largest fire on record—the deadly, destructive Cedar fire of October 2003 in San Diego County—scorched 273,246 acres. Given the lack of rain in the forecast, it is quite possible that the Thomas fire will approach or break that record.

A total of 972 structures have now been destroyed by the Thomas Fire, putting it eighth on Cal Fire’s list of most destructive wildfires. Three of the top ten most destructive fires in California history have occurred in the last three months: the Thomas Fire, the Nuns Fire of October 2017 in Sonoma County (1355 structures lost), and the simultaneous Tubbs Fire, also in Sonoma County (a record 5643 structures destroyed).

More than 8000 firefighters were battling the Thomas Fire on Friday. The deadly nature of their work was brought home on Thursday as Cal Fire reported that one of them—32-year-old Ken Iverson, a fire apparatus engineer from San Diego—died on Thursday. The other fatality associated with the December fires to date was a 70-year-old woman killed while evacuating, according to the Washington Post.

There is some good news: the Thomas Fire was 35% contained as of Friday morning, up from 30% on Thursday morning, and evacuations were lifted on Thursday afternoon for parts of Ventura County. Firefighting efforts were focused on the western and eastern ends of the fire. “Fire will continue to threaten the communities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito and surrounding areas,” said Cal Fire in a Friday morning update.

Vast amounts of smoke have wafted into California’s Central Valley, leading to poor air quality. According to AirNow.gov, cities from Bakersfield to Stockton were experiencing air at noon PST Friday rated “unhealthy” as a result of small particulates (PM2.5).

Floods and landslides the main threat from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (dubbed Urduja in the Philippines) will continue to drench the Philippines through the weekend as it slogs slowly westward. High wind shear will keep the storm from gaining a more coherent structure. However, Kai-

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articles on the current storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/daily-downpours-to-raise-risk-of-flooding-from-texas-to-the-carolinas/70002389

Daily downpours to raise risk of flooding from Texas to the Carolinas

Drenching thunderstorms will frequent the southern United States and raise the risk for local flash flooding and travel delays this week.
The set up early this week will lead to heavier and more frequent thunderstorms than what is typical in the South during the summer months.
“An unsettled pattern will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms, perhaps heavy ones, from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas early this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait said.
Moisture will congregate along a stalled system and lead to daily doses of wet weather through Wednesday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will follow later in the week even as the front fizzles or lifts back northward.
Some communities will be drenched multiple times this week, raising the risk for flash, urban and small stream flooding.
The thunderstorms have the potential to unleash several inches of rain in as many hours, which could quickly overwhelm storm drains and low-lying areas.
Major flooding hit San Antonio, Texas, on Monday morning as nearly 2.5 inches of rain poured down across the metro area. Nearby, a Cocorahs observer recorded 7.52 inches of rain near Llano, Texas. According to the emergency manager, water rescues were performed in flooded areas.

Dallas and Houston; Shreveport, Louisiana; Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama; Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are all in line for downpours this week.
The downpours will also target the Florida Peninsula, threatening to occasionally keep summer vacationers indoors in Orlando and Miami.
The thunderstorms will add to the meteorological summer (June through August) rainfall record that Gainesville, Florida, has already set. A total of 34.60 inches of rain fell spanning June to August 4, surpassing the previous record of 32.55 inches from 1965.
Gainesville averages 19.58 inches during the meteorological summer months.

Airline passengers may encounter flight delays, while residents should prepare for possible disruptions to sporting events and other outdoor plans.
A few of the thunderstorms may also unleash damaging winds.
“Typical August heat will be kept at bay due to the increase in thunderstorms,” Strait said.
High temperatures that are usually in the 90s F will be held in the lower to middle 80s.
The exception will be across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms in this area will be more typical and spotty in nature. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s on most days.

Tropical Storm Franklin to threaten Mexico twice this week

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and threatens to strike Mexico twice this week.
The combination of very warm water and diminishing wind shear will allow Franklin to strengthen before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night.

Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes.
As a result, Franklin may strengthen rapidly prior to its first landfall Monday night.
“Franklin could be close to hurricane strength when it makes landfall over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula later Monday night,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
People on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should hurry preparations due to a direct hit from a tropical system near hurricane strength during Monday night. A hurricane has sustained winds of 74 mph or greater with higher gusts.

Franklin also affect Honduras and Nicaragua, Belize, southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala. Northern Belize could be hit hard, if Franklin shifts its track slightly farther south.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will ramp up and spread westward, while seas and surf build in the region.
“Mudslides could get triggered in the higher terrain of Central America,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The worst of the storm will pass southeast of the Cayman Islands. However, rough seas will occur around the islands into Monday night.

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Strange Days indeed.

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https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/severe-weather-forecast-plains-late-may

A multi-day severe weather threat that is taking aim on parts of the Plains, Midwest and South this week is well underway. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and some tornadoes will be possible each day through late week. Clusters of thunderstorms could also cause some flash flooding.

There were multiple reports of tornadoes Sunday evening across Texas, Kansas and South Dakota.

A tornado touched down near Howardwick, Texas, and another tornado was spotted south of Interstate 20 near Big Springs, Texas. A large tornado near Waka, Texas, knocked down a quarter-mile row of power lines. In Kansas, a half-mile wide wedge tornado was reported near Lydia. No major damage has been reported in all of the areas mentioned above.

Hail the size of tennis balls (2.50 inches) led to broken car windows near Post, Texas, Sunday evening, and hail as large as teacups (3 inches) was spotted near Elbow, Texas. Farther north in Nebraska, hail coated the ground near Mullen, where severe thunderstorms left residents without power.

The rounds of thunderstorms throughout this week are being triggered by ripples of energy ejecting eastward from a southward dip in the jet stream across the West. That energy and its associated slow-moving frontal system is intercepting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing the thunderstorms to form.

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of this severe weather event throughout the next several days.

Severe Weather Forecast

Keep in mind that although our forecasts maps the next several days may show that a large area is at risk for severe weather, that not every single location will see damaging thunderstorms. Also, the magnitude of the severe weather threat and tornado potential may vary each day. Check back for updates.

Monday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward to Oklahoma and Texas.
Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. The greatest threat of tornadoes will be from western Kansas to western Oklahoma and west Texas.
Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Okla. City | Dallas

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Iowa and Nebraska southward to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and north Texas.
Threats: Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Cities: Des Moines | Topeka | Tulsa | Wichita Falls, Texas

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article

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/tropical-storm-etau-japan-flooding-landslides

Dramatic helicopter rescues unfolded on live television in Japan Thursday as a flood-swollen river breached a levee, sending raging floodwaters into a neighborhood north of Tokyo and leaving dozens of residents trapped on the roofs or upper floors of their homes. At least three people are missing in Japan due to flooding and landslides caused by extreme rainfall resulting from former Tropical Storm Etau.

Rare emergency warnings for heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides were issued for nearly 5 million people in two prefectures near Tokyo Thursday morning as torrential rain continued to inundate parts of Japan, flooding hundreds of homes.

Just after midnight early Thursday (Japan time), the Japan Meteorological Agency issued an emergency warning for heavy rainfall in Tochigi Prefecture, north of Tokyo, where more than 20 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in some locations. (Japan is 13 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.)

Shortly before 8 a.m. local time Thursday, JMA added nearly all of Ibaraki Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, to the emergency heavy rainfall warning as the heavy rain band shifted ever so slightly to the east and rivers burst their banks as runoff from rain elsewhere drained into rivers flowing through the prefecture.

As Etau moved north into the Sea of Japan Wednesday, a trailing north-south-oriented band of heavy rain stalled over the Kanto region, including Tokyo. Even though Etau was declared post-tropical late Wednesday evening, the band of rain continued to bring torrential rainfall over Tokyo and points to the north well into the daylight hours Thursday.

The resulting rainfall has been exceptionally heavy. JMA said the rainfall amounts being observed are to be expected roughly once every 50 years in some areas, raising concerns of unusually serious flooding and landslides.

According to the Tochigi Prefecture government, a landslide early Thursday in the city of Kanuma left one person missing and another person injured. Kanuma reported 444 millimeters (17.48 inches) of rain in the 24-hour period ending at 6 a.m. local time Thursday; in records that began in 1976, this was more than double the city’s previous 24-hour record of 212 mm (8.35 inches) set July 11, 2002.

The incident was one of 17 landslides reported by the prefectural government as of midday Thursday. One home each was damaged in two of the landslides, and 11 people were trapped but later rescued in another of the incidents. The government said five people were stranded in Nikkō due to flooding on a local river Wednesday night; firefighters rescued them around daybreak Thursday.

The incident was one of 17 landslides reported by the prefectural government as of midday Thursday. One home each was damaged in two of the landslides, and 11 people were trapped but later rescued in another of the incidents. The government said five people were stranded in Nikkō due to flooding on a local river Wednesday night; firefighters rescued them around daybreak Thursday.

Meanwhile, JMA issued its highest level of flood warning for the Kinugawa River Thursday morning. The river drains southward through the prefectures north of Tokyo. Early Thursday afternoon, the river breached a levee in the city of Joso, Ibaraki Prefecture.

Japan’s Self-Defense Force sent helicopters to the scene, plucking a number of people from rooftops and the top stories of homes near the stricken levee. Japanese television stations broadcast some of the dramatic scenes live as they happened during the early afternoon hours Thursday.

In one disturbing scene, two people were seen struggling to cling to the roof of what appeared to be a garage or shed as the structure began to crumble beneath them and collapse into the raging floodwaters. The television broadcast, streamed live on the website houdoukyoku.jp, quickly cut away from the images to show its in-studio anchors. The fate of the couple is not immediately clear.

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This will be in rolling waves and rounds.

The following excerpts are from Accuweather.

“A storm bearing strong winds, heavy snow, torrential rain, thunderstorms and fog will converge on the Northeast and Midwest on Christmas Eve and will likely create major travel delays, both on the roads and at airports.
The early stages of travel problems from patchy rain and fog will develop on Tuesday. The most widespread travel disruptions and the worst weather conditions in terms of windswept rain and travel-impairing snow will be centered on Christmas Eve.

Problems due to snow and wind will continue in the Upper Midwest and central Appalachians into Christmas Day.

Drenching Rain to Raise Flooding Risk in Northeast
For many people traveling by ground and air, rain will be an inconvenience. However, enough rain can fall at times to cause poor visibility and increase the risk of hydroplaning for those traveling at highway speeds.
Excess water on the roads will reduce the braking action and increase the distance required between vehicles in an emergency situation.
Heavy rainfall in the Midwest will tend to be spotty, but as the storm moves northward on Christmas Eve, heavy rain will become widespread progressing through the mid-Atlantic and New England.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, “We are concerned about rapidly melting snow, combined with heavy rain leading to a stream and river flooding situation in northern New England.”

Strong Winds Could be a Snag for Airline Passengers
One of the most common causes of flight delays is strong winds, especially where they blow perpendicular to runways.
Gusty winds blowing from the south and east may lead to flight delays in the mid-Atlantic, New England and eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Increasing winds from the west and northwest may cause similar problems throughout the Midwest on Christmas Eve with the risk expanding to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Christmas Day.
The strongest winds are likely in New England Wednesday into Wednesday night, when gusts could reach 60 mph along the coast and over mountains across the interior. Gusts could approach 50 mph around New York City Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
These strong winds can also lead to coastal flooding from the coast of New Jersey all the way up the coast of Maine.
This can result in flooded roadways and properties located along the immediate coast.
Turbulence during and in the wake of the storm could be a problem on some flights.

Strong Thunderstorms May Affect the South
The storm system may become strong enough to produce drenching and gusty thunderstorms in the Deep South.
The concern for these thunderstorms is greatest from eastern Louisiana and Mississippi to Florida and South Carolina.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be monitoring the potential for the risk to expand to the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday.

Snow to Create Hazardous Travel in Midwest, Appalachians and Ohio Valley
While much of the South, mid-Atlantic and New England will be spared travel problems from snow with this storm, significant travel delays and dangers will develop in the Midwest and perhaps the Appalachians from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day.
The greatest risk of an all-out snowstorm is over a part of Michigan and central Ontario.
It is during the transition to colder air following rain, when the greatest dangers for travelers may develop farther south.
While not a huge amount of snow is forecast for the Ohio Valley states, the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians with the storm itself, snow showers or a quick burst of snow could lead to a rapid covering of snow on the highways.
From parts of Illinois, Kentucky and lower Michigan, eastward to western Pennsylvania, western New York and West Virginia, motorists should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions on Christmas Eve. This could occur during the day over the Midwest and toward the central Appalachians as temperatures fall.

A storm bearing strong winds, heavy snow, torrential rain, thunderstorms and fog will converge on the Northeast and Midwest on Christmas Eve and will likely create major travel delays, both on the roads and at airports.
The early stages of travel problems from patchy rain and fog will develop on Tuesday. The most widespread travel disruptions and the worst weather conditions in terms of windswept rain and travel-impairing snow will be centered on Christmas Eve.”

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