Strange Weather

Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather?



What role does climate change play in extreme weather?

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Fluctuations in weather happen all the time. But sometimes, those fluctuations can get extreme, making disasters like hurricanes and heatwaves more intense. What role does climate change play in extreme weather?

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Extreme weather is on the rise. A recent study found that worldwide, there were almost two and half times more extreme weather events in the first decade of this century than in the 1980s. To tease out the relationship between climate change and extreme weather, scientists use something called attribution science. This technique breaks down how much climate change influenced the event versus normal variations in weather. To do this successfully, researchers use climate models. They’re basically computer programs that simulate how the Earth’s climate will change over time. Essentially, 2 models are created. Model 1 — the world without humans burning fossil fuels. And model 2, a world like ours now, where we do burn fossil fuels.

In general, climate change models can’t tell us if climate change is the cause of any particular extreme weather event, but they do indicate that climate change is making those events more severe. Climate change is causing higher sea levels and warmer waters, and that’s leading to stronger hurricanes and heavier rainfall. Going forward, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that if climate change continues at its current rate, extreme weather will only get more extreme.

What is extreme weather?
Extreme weather is when a weather event is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

What is climate change?
A change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels.

What is climate attribution science?
The effort to scientifically demonstrate which mechanisms are responsible for observed changes in the Earth’s climate.

SOURCES:
Natural Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Public Health
http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMra1109877

Liability for Climate Change
http://www.climateprediction.net/wp-content/publications/nature_allen_270203.pdf

Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/pdf

How We Use Climate Models
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/primer/climate-models

National Climate Change Assessment Report
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

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30 comments

NoNo Music September 7, 2017 at 2:02 am

I love how beyond the noise is participating and adressing concerns in the comments!!! Keep up the great work guys!!!

George Applegate September 7, 2017 at 4:00 pm

First you say emphatically that weather is not climate, but then claim that extreme weather is. You imply that this is because extreme weather events have increase by citing EM-DAT, which is a measure of increasing self-reported damage caused by events, not an increase in the severity or frequency of event themselves. Actual measures of the frequency and severity of extreme weather events shows an overall decreasing trend, not increasing. Harvey marked and end to the longest absence in major landfall hurricanes in history, over a decade.

You also must appreciate storm category inflation. A century ago major hurricanes were categorized based solely on weather station data, so one of the weather stations it passed over had to record high enough sustained winds to reach a category. Today they use of aircraft and satellite observations, coupled with computer models, is how strength is assessed. If the models say that any part of the storm should in theory be reaching the criteria for a high category, that's how it's labeled, even if no weather station ever sees those conditions. This happened in 2016 when hurricane Matthew was labeled Category 5 even though no weather station saw it as more than Category 3. Had it formed a century ago, it would instead have been labeled Category 3, and probably not even that since the weather station that recorded it as Category 3 didn't exist then. Something similar happened in Australia in 2015 where a landfall "Category 5" tropical cyclone, Marcia, inexplicably did almost no damage – weather stations recorded it as only Category 2.

You say there is an "overwhelming scientific consensus is that if climate change continues it its current rate, extreme weather will only get more extreme." This is simply false. While there are some scientists who have made this claim, that doesn't make it the consensus, let alone the "overwhelming" consensus. If there is an overwhelming scientific consensus, it is that all of human activity likely contributes to climate, although there is no consensus on whether the magnitude of that contribution is large or small. Read the Bray surveys of climate scientists, not the claims made by Cook & Oreskes (a psychologist and a science historian) who are only guessing at what climate scientists think without actually surveying them. The actual consensus among climate scientists if close to the consensus among climate skeptics.

tsuchan1 September 7, 2017 at 7:48 pm

Both 🙂 We clearly have to combat climate change. But unless we're proposing to be King Knut standing against the tide, we'd better learn how to deal with extreme weather conditions better than today.

Karl the Pagan September 7, 2017 at 9:23 pm

We should use all our available tools to reduce the human impact on atmospheric CO2. #RethinkNuclear

Nicholas Perez September 8, 2017 at 11:21 pm

Your final question was like asking: "Should we treat the symptoms of this life threatening disease or develop a vaccine?" Kind of a no brainer really…

Bob Bobson September 9, 2017 at 7:47 am

I'd love for these videos to be more in-depth (however your production costs might prohibit that?). 4:50min for such an important and broad topic might add more noise rather than cut through it – even though it's well produced.

Regarding climate change, I don't think humanity is nearly alarmed enough. Unsurprisingly.

Vague numbers like 400ppm (400 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere), +2 °C global warming, metrical amounts of greenhouse gases are no figures that alarm the population. The general restraint of science is a great achievement however it is misplaced in this matter I think.

– A lot of area around the equator will become inhabitable
– So will many cities along the coastlines
– Millions if not billions of people will flee to countries with more moderate conditions (conflicts caused by cultural differences will arise)
– Thawing permafrost in the arctic will release more than double the current amount of methane (34 times more potent than CO2) in the atmosphere
– Food will become more expensive as fertile land becomes more scarce
– Armed conflicts will become more frequent (for clean water, food) – see syria where a draught fueled the civil war
– Potential viruses unknown to humans trapped in the permafrost might be exposed
– Increasing deforestation will lead to lower oxygen output, higher CO2 concentrations will have an impact on general health
(…)

Going back to your question: I think we need to actively work against climate change in a collaboration unprecedented in human history. We have a huge blocker in our way though: Capitalism (or more precisely: captial). In reality a lot more wealth and lives will have to be destroyed in order for "us" (namely the powerful, rich) to act accordingly.

A combination of a basic income, new energy production and storage technologies while stopping the burning of fossil fuels, collaborations between countries and perhaps a voluntary/paid (or mandatory, not sure about that) "environment duty" for citizens can be part of a solution.

Draco55 September 12, 2017 at 6:09 am

You should make a video on the reversal of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and certain cancers shown in studies from people like Ornish, Kempner, and Essylsten by placing them on a whole foods plant based diet

SKPjoe Coursegold September 14, 2017 at 8:32 pm

a snowball in HELL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Emily Johnson October 11, 2017 at 5:23 pm

stop burining fossel fuels

OwlNation Legal October 15, 2017 at 4:10 am

All life including humans will be extinct in under a decade per http://accorddeparis.org 7th lesson video. There is no 2050 or 2100 folks. The CO2 in the atmosphere is a blanket and earth's getting warmer. As Siberian tundra now spewing methane from over 7000 blowholes, some craters a km wide, are joined by both Canadian/Alaskan methane pockets, plus from the sea floor now that we have a blue ocean region where there used to be ice, and places where methane is fizzing like ginger ale in areas 150 km wide, its 150-300 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas when first released, then 20-80 times more powerful in a few years depending on concentration. So if the blanket was an inch thick, imagine a blanket 150.- 300 inches thick. That's a 25 foot thick blanket folks. Warm enough? As sea levels rise and multiple nuclear plants fail combined with the rapid sea level rise, more superstorms, drought and famine, together triggering widespread mass migrations, kiss civilization, along with readily available parts and tech labor ALL goodbye, which means 1,600 nuclear facilities will, not maybe, catastrophically fail. Warm enough now?

midbrew November 27, 2017 at 7:51 pm

How do we know the scientists climate models are correct? Easy: if they weren't than an industry that makes, globally, a TRILLION DOLLARS in PROFIT each year, ALL of which is threatened with extinction if the Scientists are right, would put up a trifle of their profits to manufacture COMPETING MODELS. Big Fossils doesn't bother to provide competing climate predictions. Why not? Because THEN they would have to JUSTIFY them, and no amount of money could protect them when their scam was undone. And THAT IS HOW you know the scientists are probably on the right track.

3:38 "Lets say you're trying to figure out if climate change played a role in Hurricane Harvey." This video was released in Sept. By Nov, Kerry Emmanuel had already done an attribution study on Harvey. He found that Harvey's rainfall levels had a 1% (1 in 100) chance of happening, in any 20 year period in the latter half of the 20th century. However, by later this century, that will rise to a 20% (1 in 5) chance.
https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2017/11/14/attribution-study-shows-hurricane-harvey-flood-becoming-much-likely/

CrabApples Bodaciously Bitter Fruit's November 30, 2017 at 6:35 pm

More bugs less food production more hot humid days 0 bennifit we all slowly die

Josh Mongerson June 3, 2018 at 1:59 pm

Cut meat and dairy out of your diet if you care about climate change, or at least make changes to reduce your consumption. Animal agriculture emits more greenhouse gas emissions than all of transportation combined. The guardian just released a good piece discussing how a vegan diet is the single most important thing you can do to help stop climate change. Vegan is the future y’all, get on board.

Nicole August 28, 2018 at 1:07 am

is no one else going to mention the fact that Edna Mode is smoking a cigarette?

CallMeChemotherapy Shit posts September 30, 2019 at 1:44 am

You see, I am higky conservitive and global warming/climate change exists and is happening. I agree we can do better on recycling and finding fossil fule alternitives but the media is goreifying and exaterating about the whole thing. They are using it to scare us and make us more easy to control. All we need to do is not acually stop using fossil fules but instead use a lot less of it and ease our way out of it slowly.

BaconWhale April 23, 2020 at 7:06 pm

Kinda cringe not going lie

Zoe Hmar May 21, 2020 at 4:14 am

Great clip, informative

P. Pinchelette May 23, 2020 at 10:11 pm

I'm glad I found this channel, actually the entire PBS channels are cool.

Mann Garg November 26, 2020 at 1:18 am

why are we using this video in school

Allysandra Ilagan January 2, 2021 at 12:40 pm

Hi guys! Go check out Ecosia. It is a search engine that plants a tree for every 45 searches u make. These trees are planted in places that are extremely vulnerable to climate change. If you think this is fake, u can always check out their YouTube channel. Stay safe guys 🙂 bai bai

VictoryForDays February 7, 2021 at 5:28 pm

i hate school for this

Jam Tree August 30, 2021 at 4:07 pm

The climate has always been changing.

Dolger Hanske August 30, 2021 at 8:12 pm

If Co2 reflect the heat from earth shouldn’t it reflect the heat from the sun as well?🤔🤔 Fact: No climate model have ever precisely predicted the climate because they’re not made to predict climate but to understand it(according to the Japanese inventor of the climate model). But then again, why trust Nobel laureates with decades of experience when you got a teenage high school dropout who can’t even answer the basic question I’ve been asking all alarmists: What would be a desirable Co2 lvl and how much are you willing to sacrifice to get there. And then….. the conversation usually ends.

Ricoman August 30, 2021 at 8:49 pm

Most of the topics discussed in this video are pure fiction. Turn the video off and try reading Steven Koonin’s book “Unsettled”. He discusses the most up to date climate science, what it tells us and what it doesn’t tell us. The IPCC is a political entity and exaggeration is their main gain. The earth is warming, not as much as the media says, and the claim that climate change is existential is not correct. The true science does not support claims of increased this and more intense that.

Erick Fernandez September 1, 2021 at 12:48 am

Bahaha! The Snowball!!!! LoL. That's so stereotypically correct of a political "argument".

Livetree September 20, 2021 at 11:40 am

Why are republicans still denying and trying to refute climate change? Are they just not realizing what is going on around them or are they trying to deny climate change to line their own pockets from large donors? #livetree #corruption #lobbying

Patrick Sebree September 24, 2021 at 8:48 pm

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Humberto Pretti December 23, 2021 at 11:27 am

Climates models are a hoax! Their predictions are wrong for decades now! If we can not predict the weather for a week how do you think the predict things for years to come!

Humberto Pretti December 23, 2021 at 11:30 am

Could you have same data instead of just saying that thing's are worst. Tell me the last 10 hurricanes on history? When they occur?

Comments are closed.