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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fire-threat-wont-let-go-california-philippines-brace-torrential-rains-kai-tak

Fire Threat Won’t Let Go of California; Philippines Brace for Torrential Rain from Kai-Tak

The North Pacific is bookended by two major weather stories this weekend—one involving too much rain, the other too little. A slow-moving tropical storm crawling across the Philippines was adding to rainfall that could end up totaling several feet in some spots (see below). Meanwhile, another round of dangerous fire weather conditions was predicted for parts of Central and Southern California as a destructive, nerve-racking December continued across the parched state.

Critical fire weather possible in parts of Bay Area on Saturday
A strong cold front pushing southward through California will kick up high winds early in the weekend, leading to potentially critical fire weather conditions. In its outlook for Saturday, issued early Friday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted the risk of critical fire weather across a large swath of central California, including most of the Bay Area as well as the North Bay Hills that were hammered by catastrophic fire in October. Relative humidity (RH) is not expected to drop into the less-than-10% range, which is associated with the most severe fire behavior, but north-northeast winds gusting beyond 30 mph may coincide with low RH of 15-25%.

Critical fire weather conditions are also possible from late Saturday into Sunday across parts of coastal Southern California hard-hit by massive late-season fires over the last two weeks.

No rain has fallen in the last two weeks across much of the Southwest U.S. (see Figure 1). With luck, parts of Northern California could see a modest early-winter storm late next week, but otherwise no major rain or snow is expected across the state for at least the next week to 10 days.

Thomas Fire grinds its way to new records
The Thomas Fire—still raging across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, northwest of Los Angeles—grew from 242,500 acres on Thursday to 252,500 acres on Friday. That’s no small expansion: the fire consumed 15.6 square miles in just 24 hours.

The Thomas Fire now ranks as the fourth largest in California’s wildfire history, according to Cal Fire. Just ahead of it is the August 2013 Rim Fire: that one devoured 257,314 acres, so it looks likely that the Thomas Fire will soon displace it as #3 on the list. The state’s largest fire on record—the deadly, destructive Cedar fire of October 2003 in San Diego County—scorched 273,246 acres. Given the lack of rain in the forecast, it is quite possible that the Thomas fire will approach or break that record.

A total of 972 structures have now been destroyed by the Thomas Fire, putting it eighth on Cal Fire’s list of most destructive wildfires. Three of the top ten most destructive fires in California history have occurred in the last three months: the Thomas Fire, the Nuns Fire of October 2017 in Sonoma County (1355 structures lost), and the simultaneous Tubbs Fire, also in Sonoma County (a record 5643 structures destroyed).

More than 8000 firefighters were battling the Thomas Fire on Friday. The deadly nature of their work was brought home on Thursday as Cal Fire reported that one of them—32-year-old Ken Iverson, a fire apparatus engineer from San Diego—died on Thursday. The other fatality associated with the December fires to date was a 70-year-old woman killed while evacuating, according to the Washington Post.

There is some good news: the Thomas Fire was 35% contained as of Friday morning, up from 30% on Thursday morning, and evacuations were lifted on Thursday afternoon for parts of Ventura County. Firefighting efforts were focused on the western and eastern ends of the fire. “Fire will continue to threaten the communities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito and surrounding areas,” said Cal Fire in a Friday morning update.

Vast amounts of smoke have wafted into California’s Central Valley, leading to poor air quality. According to AirNow.gov, cities from Bakersfield to Stockton were experiencing air at noon PST Friday rated “unhealthy” as a result of small particulates (PM2.5).

Floods and landslides the main threat from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (dubbed Urduja in the Philippines) will continue to drench the Philippines through the weekend as it slogs slowly westward. High wind shear will keep the storm from gaining a more coherent structure. However, Kai-

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Strange Days indeed.

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https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/severe-weather-forecast-plains-late-may

A multi-day severe weather threat that is taking aim on parts of the Plains, Midwest and South this week is well underway. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and some tornadoes will be possible each day through late week. Clusters of thunderstorms could also cause some flash flooding.

There were multiple reports of tornadoes Sunday evening across Texas, Kansas and South Dakota.

A tornado touched down near Howardwick, Texas, and another tornado was spotted south of Interstate 20 near Big Springs, Texas. A large tornado near Waka, Texas, knocked down a quarter-mile row of power lines. In Kansas, a half-mile wide wedge tornado was reported near Lydia. No major damage has been reported in all of the areas mentioned above.

Hail the size of tennis balls (2.50 inches) led to broken car windows near Post, Texas, Sunday evening, and hail as large as teacups (3 inches) was spotted near Elbow, Texas. Farther north in Nebraska, hail coated the ground near Mullen, where severe thunderstorms left residents without power.

The rounds of thunderstorms throughout this week are being triggered by ripples of energy ejecting eastward from a southward dip in the jet stream across the West. That energy and its associated slow-moving frontal system is intercepting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing the thunderstorms to form.

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of this severe weather event throughout the next several days.

Severe Weather Forecast

Keep in mind that although our forecasts maps the next several days may show that a large area is at risk for severe weather, that not every single location will see damaging thunderstorms. Also, the magnitude of the severe weather threat and tornado potential may vary each day. Check back for updates.

Monday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward to Oklahoma and Texas.
Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. The greatest threat of tornadoes will be from western Kansas to western Oklahoma and west Texas.
Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Okla. City | Dallas

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Iowa and Nebraska southward to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and north Texas.
Threats: Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Cities: Des Moines | Topeka | Tulsa | Wichita Falls, Texas

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This will be in rolling waves and rounds.

The following excerpts are from Accuweather.

“A storm bearing strong winds, heavy snow, torrential rain, thunderstorms and fog will converge on the Northeast and Midwest on Christmas Eve and will likely create major travel delays, both on the roads and at airports.
The early stages of travel problems from patchy rain and fog will develop on Tuesday. The most widespread travel disruptions and the worst weather conditions in terms of windswept rain and travel-impairing snow will be centered on Christmas Eve.

Problems due to snow and wind will continue in the Upper Midwest and central Appalachians into Christmas Day.

Drenching Rain to Raise Flooding Risk in Northeast
For many people traveling by ground and air, rain will be an inconvenience. However, enough rain can fall at times to cause poor visibility and increase the risk of hydroplaning for those traveling at highway speeds.
Excess water on the roads will reduce the braking action and increase the distance required between vehicles in an emergency situation.
Heavy rainfall in the Midwest will tend to be spotty, but as the storm moves northward on Christmas Eve, heavy rain will become widespread progressing through the mid-Atlantic and New England.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, “We are concerned about rapidly melting snow, combined with heavy rain leading to a stream and river flooding situation in northern New England.”

Strong Winds Could be a Snag for Airline Passengers
One of the most common causes of flight delays is strong winds, especially where they blow perpendicular to runways.
Gusty winds blowing from the south and east may lead to flight delays in the mid-Atlantic, New England and eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Increasing winds from the west and northwest may cause similar problems throughout the Midwest on Christmas Eve with the risk expanding to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Christmas Day.
The strongest winds are likely in New England Wednesday into Wednesday night, when gusts could reach 60 mph along the coast and over mountains across the interior. Gusts could approach 50 mph around New York City Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
These strong winds can also lead to coastal flooding from the coast of New Jersey all the way up the coast of Maine.
This can result in flooded roadways and properties located along the immediate coast.
Turbulence during and in the wake of the storm could be a problem on some flights.

Strong Thunderstorms May Affect the South
The storm system may become strong enough to produce drenching and gusty thunderstorms in the Deep South.
The concern for these thunderstorms is greatest from eastern Louisiana and Mississippi to Florida and South Carolina.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be monitoring the potential for the risk to expand to the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday.

Snow to Create Hazardous Travel in Midwest, Appalachians and Ohio Valley
While much of the South, mid-Atlantic and New England will be spared travel problems from snow with this storm, significant travel delays and dangers will develop in the Midwest and perhaps the Appalachians from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day.
The greatest risk of an all-out snowstorm is over a part of Michigan and central Ontario.
It is during the transition to colder air following rain, when the greatest dangers for travelers may develop farther south.
While not a huge amount of snow is forecast for the Ohio Valley states, the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians with the storm itself, snow showers or a quick burst of snow could lead to a rapid covering of snow on the highways.
From parts of Illinois, Kentucky and lower Michigan, eastward to western Pennsylvania, western New York and West Virginia, motorists should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions on Christmas Eve. This could occur during the day over the Midwest and toward the central Appalachians as temperatures fall.

A storm bearing strong winds, heavy snow, torrential rain, thunderstorms and fog will converge on the Northeast and Midwest on Christmas Eve and will likely create major travel delays, both on the roads and at airports.
The early stages of travel problems from patchy rain and fog will develop on Tuesday. The most widespread travel disruptions and the worst weather conditions in terms of windswept rain and travel-impairing snow will be centered on Christmas Eve.”

God Bless Everyone,

T

https://www.facebook.com/THORnewsgo or @NewThor on Twitter

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