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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fire-threat-wont-let-go-california-philippines-brace-torrential-rains-kai-tak

Fire Threat Won’t Let Go of California; Philippines Brace for Torrential Rain from Kai-Tak

The North Pacific is bookended by two major weather stories this weekend—one involving too much rain, the other too little. A slow-moving tropical storm crawling across the Philippines was adding to rainfall that could end up totaling several feet in some spots (see below). Meanwhile, another round of dangerous fire weather conditions was predicted for parts of Central and Southern California as a destructive, nerve-racking December continued across the parched state.

Critical fire weather possible in parts of Bay Area on Saturday
A strong cold front pushing southward through California will kick up high winds early in the weekend, leading to potentially critical fire weather conditions. In its outlook for Saturday, issued early Friday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted the risk of critical fire weather across a large swath of central California, including most of the Bay Area as well as the North Bay Hills that were hammered by catastrophic fire in October. Relative humidity (RH) is not expected to drop into the less-than-10% range, which is associated with the most severe fire behavior, but north-northeast winds gusting beyond 30 mph may coincide with low RH of 15-25%.

Critical fire weather conditions are also possible from late Saturday into Sunday across parts of coastal Southern California hard-hit by massive late-season fires over the last two weeks.

No rain has fallen in the last two weeks across much of the Southwest U.S. (see Figure 1). With luck, parts of Northern California could see a modest early-winter storm late next week, but otherwise no major rain or snow is expected across the state for at least the next week to 10 days.

Thomas Fire grinds its way to new records
The Thomas Fire—still raging across Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, northwest of Los Angeles—grew from 242,500 acres on Thursday to 252,500 acres on Friday. That’s no small expansion: the fire consumed 15.6 square miles in just 24 hours.

The Thomas Fire now ranks as the fourth largest in California’s wildfire history, according to Cal Fire. Just ahead of it is the August 2013 Rim Fire: that one devoured 257,314 acres, so it looks likely that the Thomas Fire will soon displace it as #3 on the list. The state’s largest fire on record—the deadly, destructive Cedar fire of October 2003 in San Diego County—scorched 273,246 acres. Given the lack of rain in the forecast, it is quite possible that the Thomas fire will approach or break that record.

A total of 972 structures have now been destroyed by the Thomas Fire, putting it eighth on Cal Fire’s list of most destructive wildfires. Three of the top ten most destructive fires in California history have occurred in the last three months: the Thomas Fire, the Nuns Fire of October 2017 in Sonoma County (1355 structures lost), and the simultaneous Tubbs Fire, also in Sonoma County (a record 5643 structures destroyed).

More than 8000 firefighters were battling the Thomas Fire on Friday. The deadly nature of their work was brought home on Thursday as Cal Fire reported that one of them—32-year-old Ken Iverson, a fire apparatus engineer from San Diego—died on Thursday. The other fatality associated with the December fires to date was a 70-year-old woman killed while evacuating, according to the Washington Post.

There is some good news: the Thomas Fire was 35% contained as of Friday morning, up from 30% on Thursday morning, and evacuations were lifted on Thursday afternoon for parts of Ventura County. Firefighting efforts were focused on the western and eastern ends of the fire. “Fire will continue to threaten the communities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito and surrounding areas,” said Cal Fire in a Friday morning update.

Vast amounts of smoke have wafted into California’s Central Valley, leading to poor air quality. According to AirNow.gov, cities from Bakersfield to Stockton were experiencing air at noon PST Friday rated “unhealthy” as a result of small particulates (PM2.5).

Floods and landslides the main threat from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (dubbed Urduja in the Philippines) will continue to drench the Philippines through the weekend as it slogs slowly westward. High wind shear will keep the storm from gaining a more coherent structure. However, Kai-

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articles on the current storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/daily-downpours-to-raise-risk-of-flooding-from-texas-to-the-carolinas/70002389

Daily downpours to raise risk of flooding from Texas to the Carolinas

Drenching thunderstorms will frequent the southern United States and raise the risk for local flash flooding and travel delays this week.
The set up early this week will lead to heavier and more frequent thunderstorms than what is typical in the South during the summer months.
“An unsettled pattern will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms, perhaps heavy ones, from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas early this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait said.
Moisture will congregate along a stalled system and lead to daily doses of wet weather through Wednesday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will follow later in the week even as the front fizzles or lifts back northward.
Some communities will be drenched multiple times this week, raising the risk for flash, urban and small stream flooding.
The thunderstorms have the potential to unleash several inches of rain in as many hours, which could quickly overwhelm storm drains and low-lying areas.
Major flooding hit San Antonio, Texas, on Monday morning as nearly 2.5 inches of rain poured down across the metro area. Nearby, a Cocorahs observer recorded 7.52 inches of rain near Llano, Texas. According to the emergency manager, water rescues were performed in flooded areas.

Dallas and Houston; Shreveport, Louisiana; Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama; Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are all in line for downpours this week.
The downpours will also target the Florida Peninsula, threatening to occasionally keep summer vacationers indoors in Orlando and Miami.
The thunderstorms will add to the meteorological summer (June through August) rainfall record that Gainesville, Florida, has already set. A total of 34.60 inches of rain fell spanning June to August 4, surpassing the previous record of 32.55 inches from 1965.
Gainesville averages 19.58 inches during the meteorological summer months.

Airline passengers may encounter flight delays, while residents should prepare for possible disruptions to sporting events and other outdoor plans.
A few of the thunderstorms may also unleash damaging winds.
“Typical August heat will be kept at bay due to the increase in thunderstorms,” Strait said.
High temperatures that are usually in the 90s F will be held in the lower to middle 80s.
The exception will be across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms in this area will be more typical and spotty in nature. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s on most days.

Tropical Storm Franklin to threaten Mexico twice this week

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and threatens to strike Mexico twice this week.
The combination of very warm water and diminishing wind shear will allow Franklin to strengthen before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night.

Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes.
As a result, Franklin may strengthen rapidly prior to its first landfall Monday night.
“Franklin could be close to hurricane strength when it makes landfall over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula later Monday night,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
People on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should hurry preparations due to a direct hit from a tropical system near hurricane strength during Monday night. A hurricane has sustained winds of 74 mph or greater with higher gusts.

Franklin also affect Honduras and Nicaragua, Belize, southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala. Northern Belize could be hit hard, if Franklin shifts its track slightly farther south.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will ramp up and spread westward, while seas and surf build in the region.
“Mudslides could get triggered in the higher terrain of Central America,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The worst of the storm will pass southeast of the Cayman Islands. However, rough seas will occur around the islands into Monday night.

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National Weather Service meteorologists say Tuesday’s high for the Phoenix metropolitan area is forecast to hit 80 degrees. That would top the all-time high for that date, which was 78 degrees in 1994.

The high Wednesday for the Phoenix area is projected at 82 degrees, which would be another record. It’s expected to hit 79 Thursday, close to the all-time high for that date.

It will be in the 50s through Wednesday in Flagstaff and other parts of northern Arizona with daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Weather Service officials say it’ll be within a few degrees of record levels at some of the lower elevation areas, including Prescott and Cottonwood.
CLEVELAND – Extreme weather is not unusual in the United States.
This may sound like an obvious statement for many of you. But, based on what we’ve all been hearing on the news these days, some of you may have the impression that severe weather events in 2012 were more frequent and more dangerous than any other year in history.
Time for a different perspective.
As humans, we have short memories. Our historical perspective on weather events is limited by our age and experience. I remember my grandmother telling me that current winters were “nothing like the terrible winters she experienced as a kid.” We as humans tend to remember that “big” storm from our childhood that disrupted our lives in a way we will never forget. That memory colors our weather world forever. Today’s headlines, however, are trying to convince us that current weather extremes are worse than anything grandma lived through.
According to National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2012 was the “second most extreme year on record” in the US. (behind 1998). NOAA officials write:
“2012 was a historic year for extreme weather that included drought, wildfires, hurricanes and storms; however, tornado activity was below average, according to an analysis released today by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.”
A friend of mine, Paul Homewood, writes a popular climate blog called “Not A lot of People Know That.” He loves to crunch the numbers. Homewood actually devised a system that would categorize extreme weather events by year and rank each year. He doesn’t think the weather extremes of 2012 were all that remarkable.
“With global warming failing to materialize as planned,” he wrote, “NOAA and others have been desperate to show that extreme weather is on the increase, and that mankind is responsible. In recent years, they have been running a ‘ US Climate Extremes Index ‘, and it is this index, (Picture 1, above), that they have based their claims around.”
But Homewood has real problems with this index.
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