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NOAA/National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center
Miami, FL

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Clues from the past—paired with modern-day science—can help us better understand why this area is at risk and how to best mitigate an earthquake and tsunami’s effects.

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the Crankywxguy blog (not me but recommended reading)
http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e072719.htm

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T

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articles on the current storms

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/daily-downpours-to-raise-risk-of-flooding-from-texas-to-the-carolinas/70002389

Daily downpours to raise risk of flooding from Texas to the Carolinas

Drenching thunderstorms will frequent the southern United States and raise the risk for local flash flooding and travel delays this week.
The set up early this week will lead to heavier and more frequent thunderstorms than what is typical in the South during the summer months.
“An unsettled pattern will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms, perhaps heavy ones, from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas early this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait said.
Moisture will congregate along a stalled system and lead to daily doses of wet weather through Wednesday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will follow later in the week even as the front fizzles or lifts back northward.
Some communities will be drenched multiple times this week, raising the risk for flash, urban and small stream flooding.
The thunderstorms have the potential to unleash several inches of rain in as many hours, which could quickly overwhelm storm drains and low-lying areas.
Major flooding hit San Antonio, Texas, on Monday morning as nearly 2.5 inches of rain poured down across the metro area. Nearby, a Cocorahs observer recorded 7.52 inches of rain near Llano, Texas. According to the emergency manager, water rescues were performed in flooded areas.

Dallas and Houston; Shreveport, Louisiana; Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama; Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are all in line for downpours this week.
The downpours will also target the Florida Peninsula, threatening to occasionally keep summer vacationers indoors in Orlando and Miami.
The thunderstorms will add to the meteorological summer (June through August) rainfall record that Gainesville, Florida, has already set. A total of 34.60 inches of rain fell spanning June to August 4, surpassing the previous record of 32.55 inches from 1965.
Gainesville averages 19.58 inches during the meteorological summer months.

Airline passengers may encounter flight delays, while residents should prepare for possible disruptions to sporting events and other outdoor plans.
A few of the thunderstorms may also unleash damaging winds.
“Typical August heat will be kept at bay due to the increase in thunderstorms,” Strait said.
High temperatures that are usually in the 90s F will be held in the lower to middle 80s.
The exception will be across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms in this area will be more typical and spotty in nature. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower 90s on most days.

Tropical Storm Franklin to threaten Mexico twice this week

Tropical Storm Franklin formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and threatens to strike Mexico twice this week.
The combination of very warm water and diminishing wind shear will allow Franklin to strengthen before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night.

Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes.
As a result, Franklin may strengthen rapidly prior to its first landfall Monday night.
“Franklin could be close to hurricane strength when it makes landfall over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula later Monday night,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
People on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should hurry preparations due to a direct hit from a tropical system near hurricane strength during Monday night. A hurricane has sustained winds of 74 mph or greater with higher gusts.

Franklin also affect Honduras and Nicaragua, Belize, southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala. Northern Belize could be hit hard, if Franklin shifts its track slightly farther south.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will ramp up and spread westward, while seas and surf build in the region.
“Mudslides could get triggered in the higher terrain of Central America,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The worst of the storm will pass southeast of the Cayman Islands. However, rough seas will occur around the islands into Monday night.

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Strange Days indeed.

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https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/severe-weather-forecast-plains-late-may

A multi-day severe weather threat that is taking aim on parts of the Plains, Midwest and South this week is well underway. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and some tornadoes will be possible each day through late week. Clusters of thunderstorms could also cause some flash flooding.

There were multiple reports of tornadoes Sunday evening across Texas, Kansas and South Dakota.

A tornado touched down near Howardwick, Texas, and another tornado was spotted south of Interstate 20 near Big Springs, Texas. A large tornado near Waka, Texas, knocked down a quarter-mile row of power lines. In Kansas, a half-mile wide wedge tornado was reported near Lydia. No major damage has been reported in all of the areas mentioned above.

Hail the size of tennis balls (2.50 inches) led to broken car windows near Post, Texas, Sunday evening, and hail as large as teacups (3 inches) was spotted near Elbow, Texas. Farther north in Nebraska, hail coated the ground near Mullen, where severe thunderstorms left residents without power.

The rounds of thunderstorms throughout this week are being triggered by ripples of energy ejecting eastward from a southward dip in the jet stream across the West. That energy and its associated slow-moving frontal system is intercepting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing the thunderstorms to form.

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of this severe weather event throughout the next several days.

Severe Weather Forecast

Keep in mind that although our forecasts maps the next several days may show that a large area is at risk for severe weather, that not every single location will see damaging thunderstorms. Also, the magnitude of the severe weather threat and tornado potential may vary each day. Check back for updates.

Monday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin southward to Oklahoma and Texas.
Threats: Wind-damaging thunderstorms will be scattered over these areas. There also could be some spotty large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. The greatest threat of tornadoes will be from western Kansas to western Oklahoma and west Texas.
Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha | Kansas City | Wichita | Okla. City | Dallas

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from Iowa and Nebraska southward to parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and north Texas.
Threats: Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Cities: Des Moines | Topeka | Tulsa | Wichita Falls, Texas

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